Prediction performance
Locked picks · Final scores · What it got right and wrong.
MIN at ORL
NY at BOS
ATL at CHA
TOR at WSH
DAL at IND
CHI at MIL
DEN at OKC
Saved external comparison
DraftKings total 235.5 · Projected score total 235 · Model leaned under · actual 180 — correct.
Score recap: Winner pick was correct. Total was over-projected by 54.5 pts — scoring ran colder than the model expected. Disagreed with the book on the spread and the book was right.
CLE at PHI
Saved external comparison
DraftKings total 235.5 · Projected score total 233 · Model leaned under · actual 220 — correct.
Score recap: Winner pick missed — projected margin was 2.9 pts, actual was 8. Total was over-projected by 13.6 pts — scoring ran colder than the model expected. Disagreed with the book on the spread and the book was right.
SAC at LAC
Saved external comparison
DraftKings total 226.5 · Projected score total 223 · Model leaned under · actual 217 — correct.
Score recap: Winner pick was correct. Margin was off by 16.4 pts — review the box score for pace, shooting and rotation differences. The spread read against the book held up.
Late baselines
Picks made after tip-off. Tracked separately, never counted in the accuracy above.